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But those high incomes merely reflected the extraordinary bull market. Obviously talented people are free to go into whatever field they wish to. The government has not been bailing out hedge funds. In addition, about 7. Only 1. Why the big mistakes? Someone who works in finance to allocate capital more efficiently helps create future wealth. Therefore, its not obvious on what basis one should complain that the market should have priced in more risk. What explains salaries that, even by the standards of well-trained professionals in pretty much every other field, to say nothing of the average middle class, are massive? Once you have the blueprint, it is easy to produce many types of software and pharmaceuticals. One individual taking a subprime mortgage but believing everyone else is prime is not making an irrational choice. This is a thought-provoking post. VC is an incredibly small asset class. I presume the high incomes represent one of two factors:. When these rates began to show up early in , it was apparent something was seriously wrong with assumptions on which AAA ratings had been based. Actually the MPL itself is not a simple concept in these situations. The hard part is finding the iron in the first place. Once iron is found, it can be mined very easily. Capital was allocated to the production of aluminum, and the aluminum was used to make airplanes. That meant default rates as well as the actual losses after foreclosure were going to be outside all prior experience. The next assumption is crucial. A high level of skill at allocating capital which I may not have. We do have a problem with the hedge fund managers and their quants who took off with millions and then left governments worldwide to pay out insured deposits. Market observers, rating agencies and investors were unaware of the number of subprime and Alt-A mortgages infecting the financial system in late and early Of the 26 million subprime and Alt-A loans outstanding in , 10 million were held or guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, 5. But the amounts are far too small to plausibly explain the huge returns earned in finance. Hence income is distributed fairly equally. In that sort of economy, income will become less and less equally distributed as iron becomes a larger and larger share of GDP. What precious things are these people discovering? Meanwhile SMB owners should be able to aggressively move profits from one SMB venture to another without seeing any taxable events take place. It is a sad state of affairs, but unless they can be gutted, and their hard assets sold off in liquidation events, unless they live in fear of losing everything — we need to treat them as second class citizens. Ditto the pro- and de-regulatory parts of it. I support a truly free market in banking and housing. Finance is not that important in an agricultural economy or even in an economy where the mass production of goods can be done with almost military precision. More importantly, those who spot good ideas developed by others, and allocate capital to implement those ideas, are also highly rewarded. Finance now plays a much more important role than in the s. As to your example, the reality is most innovation is happening sans real investment dollars. Whenever stock prices soar income will temporarily look much less equal. Or when Icelandic banks collapsed and the Dutch and British central banks were left to reimburse the insured deposits. Where finance is productive then there is no problem. Gabaix and Landier argued that as firms get bigger, having a better CEO will have a bigger absolute impact on profits, so they will tend to get paid more. Its important to remember that this episode does not contradict the the EMH. Suppose productivity in the mining industry mostly depends on skill at noticing iron deposits. And as you say it was far from being a perfect free market, the government has massively distorted housing and finance. It seems most economists I read only have a problem with people at the very top of these firms getting paid so much. Of course this might be uninformed prejudice, but then again it might not be. Interesting that this trend is so much stronger in the US than elsewhere — of course this might just be a market size effect. There is more to this ugly situation. Some might point to the fact that finance also earned high incomes in the years right before the Great Depression. This entry was posted on January 02nd, and is filed under Crisis of , Financial system , Great Recession , housing market , Misc. You blame the market, but why? Molest them for fun! The question is how much value hiring a CEO for an absolutely obscene salary adds to the firm, relative to hiring one for a less obscene salary. And again, I am pretty sure the very high returns that make finance so profitable go to a relatively few individuals. Then one day we woke up and realized all of our neighbors were subprime and could barely pay their bills. Some who scores 6 points has a huge effect on aggregate utility, there MP is very high. Their huge earnings do not come from taxpayers. I blame both. But I also think that markets sometime screw up and make mistakes.{/INSERTKEYS}{/PARAGRAPH} {PARAGRAPH}{INSERTKEYS}Not the role it played in the housing debacle in that specific case I agree with the critics. I agree that deposit insurance is a subsidy to banking, just as we have farm subsidies. I told Sam about a case where a proposal had good and bad aspects and the crude cost-benefit analysis I could do made it come about even. The most productive members of society were those who made things, and Michigan was near the top in per capita income. For every trader making money another is loosing money. Capital was allocated to produce steel, and the steel was used to produce cars and washing machines. It becomes extremely important in an economy where it is not at all clear what should be produced, or on what continent that production should take place. Scott — sorry for doubling up — spent too long thinking about the MPL before posting! Right now, those who develop new ideas are being highly rewarded. Scott: The volume of investment was not a mis-allocation—which is what I gather from the age of the residential capital stock, but the prices were. Perhaps people are drawing the wrong conclusions from the housing fiasco. So much for our prior rational expectations of future demand. And it is not a necessary or sufficient condition for there to be rent which is about earnings vs reservation wage — e. The Wall Street types who I have met seem very talented. I could have worked on Wall Street, but choose teaching. A lot of the public anger is because so much of what finance does seems to be totally unrelated to this. So, yes. In my model economy the iron spotters were highly productive and the iron miners had a relatively low marginal productivity. So the government was backing half of the subprime market—something to keep in mind when people claim Freddie and Fannie had nothing to do with subprime. New research by Edward Pinto, a former chief credit officer for Fannie Mae and a housing expert, has found that from the time Fannie and Freddie began buying risky loans as early as , they routinely misrepresented the mortgages they were acquiring, reporting them as prime when they had characteristics that made them clearly subprime or Alt-A. The reason we have a severe recession is because of tight money, not too many houses. You can leave a response or Trackback from your own site. But I have a question —yes, it is logical that those financiers who discover the next Google earn outsized rewards. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2. And of course much of the sub-prime mortgage fiasco had nothing to do with housing construction, it was refinancing. The income distribution in society mostly reflects differences in productivity in farming. I am trying to explain why the total income earned by the finance sector is so high. But if it makes you feel any better, they are producing something of great value except when they screw up and allocate money to sub-prime mortgage borrowers. Otherwise we would have had a severe recession in , when housing construction collapsed, rather than , when we actually had a big downturn. A high disutility of labor—the jobs are very undesirable. Stronger farmers can produce somewhat more than weaker farmers, but not a lot more. If they profit from their short positions, then they are presumably preventing capital from going to wasteful areas. Today finance earns large incomes even during years where stock prices are not soaring. In a country with million houses, the damage from adding two million a year for a couple years instead of one million a year for a couple years is modest. Sam said that in such a case, rather than flipping a coin, you figure out who your current and future allies are likely to be and take their position. And maybe there are some less obvious discoveries that also lead logically to big paydays. The level of demand is firm and sustainable. This is much better for society than someone who scores 6 points which will be erased once the football game is over. But what about the vast numbers of traders who make hundreds of thousands of dollars a years flipping securities? The mistake was probably who and where: desert locations far from infrastructure or jobs, sold to people who could only afford it if someone else would come along in a few years in buy it out.